Scratch-Off Calculator
| Card | Price | Typical top odds | Top-prize EV per ticket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap card | $1-$2 | 1 in 1,000,000+ | ~ $0.01 at a $10K top |
| Mid card | $5 | 1 in 2,000,000-4,000,000 | ~ $0.10 at a $400K top |
| Premium card | $20-$30 | 1 in 3,000,000-5,000,000 | ~ $1.00 at a $4M top |
Enter a ticket's price, its top prize, and the odds of that top prize - printed right on the card or the state lottery's game page - and this estimates the top-prize contribution to each ticket's expected value, plus what your weekly habit compounds to over a year.
Bottom line: the arithmetic is uncomfortable and that is the point. A 5-dollar ticket with a 2-million-dollar top prize at 1-in-4-million odds contributes just 50 cents of jackpot value per play - the expected value of every real scratch ticket is well below its price, because that is how the games are designed. The odds printed on the card ('overall odds 1 in 4') mean odds of winning any prize, mostly 2-to-5-dollar ones - not odds of profit. Every dollar spent has a long-run cost, and the calculator puts a number on yours.
The honest part: which game has the best odds is a real question with a boring answer - the differences between games are small fractions of a bad deal. State lotteries publish each game's full prize table and remaining-prize counts; the expected-value differences between cards are pennies per dollar, the entertainment is the product, and the tax law treats a big winner the same as any gambling income, which the notes below link to.
How to use
- Enter the ticket price, the top prize, and the top-prize odds from the card or the state lottery's site.
- Enter how many tickets you buy per week to see the annual expected cost of the habit.
- Read the honest number: expected value per ticket and per year - then decide if the fun is worth the price, which is the only question the math leaves open.
Frequently asked questions
How do you read the odds on a scratch-off ticket?
Two different numbers live on every card. The 'overall odds' - often around 1 in 4 - are the odds of winning any prize at all, and the prizes at that frequency are typically 2 to 5 dollars, barely the ticket price back. The top-prize odds are the astronomically different number printed in the fine print or the game's official page: 1 in 2 or 4 million for the jackpot. Confusing the two is the most common scratch-off misunderstanding; the first number sells the game, the second describes it.
What is the expected value of a scratch-off ticket?
Below its price, always. Expected value is each prize multiplied by its probability, summed - and state lotteries design the sum to land somewhere around 60 to 70 cents per dollar spent, which funds the programs the lottery exists to fund. This calculator isolates the top-prize term so you can see how little the headline jackpot contributes; the full picture lives in each game's official prize table, which states publish with remaining-prize counts as the game sells out.
Which scratch-offs have the best odds?
The honest ranking is between bad and slightly-less-bad. Per-dollar expected value varies a few cents across games and price points - 20-and-30-dollar tickets usually return a few cents more per dollar than cheap ones, and games near sell-out sometimes have slightly better remaining-odds because the small prizes are partially claimed. State lottery sites publish the tables to check. No ticket is +EV: the search is for the least negative entertainment dollar, not for a winning strategy.
Do you pay taxes on scratch-off winnings?
Yes - gambling winnings are ordinary income. Prizes over 600 dollars are reported, and amounts over 5,000 dollars carry the mandatory 24% federal withholding, the same rules that apply to draw-game jackpots; losing tickets cannot be netted against wins unless you itemize. The IRS gambling income rules are linked in the notes below, and they are the same rules the pool and odds calculators on this site point to.